What to expect from Gold this year?
In this article, you will learn my technical and fundamental outlooks, predictions and forecasts for Gold in 2025.
We will discuss what influenced Gold prices in recent years.
I will reveal the main fundamentals news events to pay close attention to this year.
I will share with you potential scenarios and a detailed trading plan for buying and selling Gold efficiently.
Main News Events
First, let's discuss the dynamics of Gold price for the last 4 years and its main causes.
Examining the price action on Gold since 2019th on a weekly time frame,
we can link significant geopolitical and social events that were the main drivers of bullish and bearish movements.
On the chart above, you can assess how Covid and imposed lockdowns accompanied by the increased governments' spendings pushed the prices to new historic highs.
At the same time, the abolition of lockdowns and a relief of pandemic immediately triggered an extended correction.
War in Ukraine was another important factor for a rapid Gold price growth.
Peace talks and the hopes for the resolution of the conflict provided a very bearish signal for the market.
The escalation of the conflict and the mobilization of troops in Russia were the significant milestones in the aggravation of a geopolitical situation.
Triggered bullish rally was strengthened by the war conflict in Palestine that made Gold go up by more than 30%.
Key Fundamental Factors
The main factors that made Gold prices skyrocket in recent years were the uncertainty, severe geopolitical tensions and the increased US government spending.
At the same time, the positive news as the abolition of lockdowns and hopes for the favourable future stop bullish rallies on Gold and trigger the selling movements.
The escalations of Russian/Ukrainian & Middle East tensions made Gold very bullish last year, however, one significant event stopped the rally.
The election of Trump made the market rapidly reverse and initiate a strong bearish wave.
Main Focus
Why the election of Trump would stop a bullish rally and made Gold start a significant correction?
One of the core campaign promises of Trump administration was the commitment to end the wars: to finish the Ukrainian war and bring peace in the Middle East.
Such a rhetoric made the market correct by 10% in just 10 days.
Predictions For Gold For 2025
So what can we expect from Gold this year?
I strongly believe that everything depends on the real actions of Trump administration. For now, the campaign promises are just words and so far we don't see any peace talks.
The failure to bring peace and the failure to deliver Trump campaign promises will make Gold start a new bullish rally.
On the price chart above, we can recognize a significant daily resistance based on a current all-time high. A bullish breakout of that can be a strong bullish confirmation that will push Gold much higher. Worsening geopolitical climate will provide a fundamental confirmation.
Positive news will make Gold start falling. A bearish violation of that significant support on a daily can be an accurate technical signal. Combine that with favourable news as the signed peace treaties. The relief of geopolitical tensions may even establish a bearish trend on the market.
We don't know what will happen this year and where Gold price will move next, for that reason we should have a plan for positive news and for negative ones.
The words of politicians do not worth any penny, however, I honestly want to believe that the global sentiment will be better and the conflicts will resolve.
