This year I shared more than 1300 free signals and forecasts for Gold, Forex, Commodities and Indexes.
In my predictions, quite often I relied on classic price action patterns.
In this article, I will reveal the win rate of each pattern, the most accurate and the least accurate formations of this year.
Please, note that all the predictions and forecasts that I shared this year are available on TradingView and you can back test any of the setup that I identified this year by your own. Just choose a relevant tag on my TradingView page.
Also, some of the forecasts & signals were based on a combination of multiple patterns.
Here is the list of the patterns that I personally trade:
🔘 Double Top or Bottom with Equal Highs
The pattern is considered to be valid when the highs or lows of the pattern are equal.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Double Top or Bottom with Lower High/Higher Low or Cup & Handle
The pattern is considered to be valid when the second top/bottom of the patterns is lower/higher than the first one.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Head & Shoulders and Inverted Head and Shoulders
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Horizontal Range
The pattern is the extension of a classic double top/bottom with at least 3 equal highs/lows.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
🔘 Bullish/Bearish Flag
The pattern represents a rising/falling parallel channel.
It gives a bullish/bearish signal when its upper/lower boundary is broken.
🔘 Rising/Falling Wedge Pattern
The pattern represents a contracting rising/falling channel.
It gives a bullish/bearish signal when its upper/lower boundary is broken.
🔘 Rising/Falling Expanding Wedge
The pattern represents an expanding rising/falling channel.
It gives a bullish/bearish signal when its upper/lower boundary is broken.
🔘 Descending/Ascending Triangle
The pattern is the extension of a cup & handle pattern with at least 2 lower highs/lows.
The pattern gives a bearish/bullish signal when its neckline is broken.
Please, also note that all the patterns that I identified and traded were formed on key horizontal or vertical structures.
Remember that the accuracy of any pattern drops dramatically if it is formed beyond key levels.
I consider the pattern to be a winning one if after a neckline breakout, it managed to reach the closest horizontal or vertical structure, not invalidating the pattern's highs/lows.
For example, if the price violated the high of the cup and handle pattern after its neckline breakout, such a pattern is losing one.
If it reached the closest structure without violation of the high, it is a winning pattern.
🔍 Double Top or Bottom with Equal Highs
I spotted 85 setups featuring these patterns.
Their accuracy is 62%.
🥉 Double Top or Bottom with Lower High/Higher Low or Cup & Handle
96 setups were spotted.
The performance turned out to be a little bit higher than a classic double top/bottom with 65% of the setups hitting the target.
🔍 Head & Shoulders and Inverted Head and Shoulders
58 formations spotted this year.
Average win rate is 64%
🏆 Horizontal Range The most accurate pattern of this year.
More than 148 patterns were spotted and 74% among them gave accurate signal.
🔍 Bullish/Bearish Flag
38 setups identified this year.
The accuracy of the pattern is 57%
Rising/Falling Wedge The pattern turned out to be a little bit more accurate.
Among 62 formations, 59% end up being profitable. 👎 Rising/Falling Expanding Wedge The worst pattern of this year.
I recognized 24 patterns and their accuracy was just 51%.
🥈 Descending/Ascending Triangle
64 patterns were identified. The win rate of the pattern is 66%.
The most important conclusion that we can make analyzing the performance of these patterns is that they all have an accuracy above 50%. If you properly combine these patterns with some other technical or fundamental tools, the accuracy of the setup will increase dramatically. Good luck in your trading!
